Fuels Technical Report

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Table of Contents

  1. The State of the System: 10-Year Review
  2. Fuels system 20-year outlook
  3. Conclusion
  4. Appendix A: Data Tables

Disclaimer

This report was prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. (Navigant) for The Ministry of Energy. The analytic work presented in this report represents Navigant’s professional judgment based on the information available at the time this report was prepared and assumptions as characterized by the Ministry of Energy and others. Navigant is not responsible for the reader’s use of, or reliance upon, the report, nor any decisions based on the report. NAVIGANT MAKES NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED. Readers of the report are advised that they assume all liabilities incurred by them, or third parties, as a result of their reliance on the report, or the data, information, findings and opinions contained in the report.

Foreword

The following report is in response to the request of the Ontario Minister of Energy to complete a technical report that examines the fuels sector in Ontario to support development of the Long-Term Energy Plan (LTEP).

The Fuels Technical Report (FTR) establishes a comprehensive view of the current state of the fuels sector in Ontario, including a review of fuels consumption and a set of outlooks for the 2016 through 2035 period. The FTR is meant to be complementary to the Independent Electricity System Operator’s (IESO) technical report on the electricity system, the Ontario Planning Outlook (OPO). The reports share a set of common assumptions, economic activity and demographic data, as well as the uptake of electric equipment and transportation options.

Ontario’s fuels sector is multifaceted and dynamic. Fuels are an important component of the province’s economy, critical for households, businesses and industry. Fuels are necessary for two main uses, as a source of energy and as feedstock in the manufacture of consumer products. Within the province, an array of fuels is used by Ontario consumers for various energy and non-energy purposes, ranging from space and water heating and cooking, to transportation, industrial processes and electricity generation.

Ontario’s fuels and electricity sectors are closely linked. Both electricity and fuels can be a source of energy for space heating equipment in homes and businesses. In the future it is likely that a growing number of transportation options will offer electric alternatives to fuel-based options. Choices made around these products and services will influence the demand for both electricity and fuel energy in parallel.

Ontario’s fuels sector has experienced considerable change over the past several years. Change has been driven by evolving fuels supply resources and pathways, new fuel-using technologies and the introduction and uptake of new and low-carbon alternative fuels.

The sector has proven to be flexible and responsive to shifts in both the supply landscape and demand profile. Ontarians currently have a wide variety of affordable fuels and fuel-using technologies to choose from. This adaptability will be important as the province moves forward with implementing its climate change policies, including Ontario’s cap and trade program and Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP), and participating in other, broader pan-Canadian climate change initiatives as set out in the Vancouver Declaration.

Addressing climate change will have an impact on the demand for and supply of fuel. Fuels sector participants in Ontario will need to be key players in this transformative change. Ontario’s fuels system is well-positioned to meet changing demand and supply characteristics for fuels because of the diversity and robustness within the supply chain that exists today. This supply system is adaptable, providing the opportunity to be leveraged well into the future and actively participate in achievement of the province’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets.

This report begins with an overview of the current state of Ontario’s fuels sector, including a summary of the fuel types and demand profile across each sector of the economy and a discussion of the end uses for the various fuels. The FTR also examines the outlook for demand under a set of scenarios and explores the effects on the systems which produce and deliver those fuels over the next two decades.